Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Raptors run-down (Part 2 of 3)

(this is a follow up to the argument made by a fellow bball fan that Derozen can be good, if he just drove to the net a little more)

You are right about DD at the rim. He is top 5 in the league for shooting guards at drawing fouls (which I assume most of the fouls are on drives to the rim), and he makes 80% of the FT's, which is ok compared to most SG's - 22nd, but he shoots over 7 a game, so he shoots a lot more FT's than most 2-guards. The problem is that he actually finishes at the rim on NON-fouled attempts extremely poorly - 33rd in the league for SG's that play substantial minutes. So on one hand if he drives and gets fouled, that is really effective offense, but on the other, if he does not get fouled he is way below average for scoring, add to it that he is abysmal at any kind of shot attempt away from the rim and you have a big handicap at your 2 guard spot.

You are also correct in saying that they win more with Andrea healthy. But only in absolute terms. A lot of that has to do with the schedule. They are 13-31 with him, 7-26 without him. Their best win of the year was against Memphis (and they even did that without Jose playing). Memphis is a good team, 58% winning percentage (and they are better than that suggests - they have recent wins over a lot of good teams; @ OKC, @ Miami, @ Lakers, Clippers)

So if you look at their schedule with AB injured, they played 11 of those 26 games vs teams with a record better than the Grizz. It's probably an ok assumption (based on the rest of their season results - no quality wins) that they go 0-11 or maybe get 1 win out of those 11 games with a healthy line-up. Factor out those games, since the result isn't going to change and you are looking at a 7-15 record with AB out in games that are reasonably expected to be competitive. The record is bad either way, but they are more competitive with AB not playing, which as you know agrees with my personal opinion about the production you get from Andrea.

(follow up to what I know about Jonas, last year's first round pick coming next season)
I can't say that I've watched any of the euro games that Jonas has played, but I'm sure he has to be a massive improvement in rebounding. (As a reminder - Andrea is one of the worst rebounders in history. People in the first row have a similar rebounding rate) All the reporting from his action over there says that he basically dominates with a very diverse skill set and that he would go as high or higher if he were to be drafted this year. That could really be a great pick since he apparently would have been stuck behind Andrea/Aaron Gray/Jamaal this year (limited much like Ed Davis continues to be) but instead received a bigger workload.

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